Archer Aviation Inc. (ACHR) stock intrinsic value fair value estimate & owner earnings analysis

Archer Aviation is developing the Midnight, an electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft intended for short-haul "air taxi" service, and is also adapting its electric powertrain technology for defense applications through a partnership with Anduril Industries. The company has not yet received FAA type certification for Midnight and has generated essentially no revenue -- $0.3 million in 2025 and $6.6 million in the first half of 2026, mostly from early defense-related engineering work. Because there is no certified, revenue-producing aircraft yet, and no binding contract guaranteeing future revenue, we cannot credit any hoped-for air-taxi or defense revenue in this valuation -- only cash actually on the balance sheet, and the cash the business is actually spending. The purchase agreement with United Airlines for up to $1.0 billion of aircraft is conditional, not a firm order, and the manufacturing arrangement with Stellantis remains a memorandum of understanding, with no final agreement yet signed. Those are real relationships worth watching, but they are not yet money in the bank. As of mid-2026, Archer held about $1.56 billion in cash and short-term investments against roughly $80 million of debt (a construction loan for its new Georgia manufacturing facility), for net cash of about $1.48 billion, or roughly $1.92 per share on about 770 million shares outstanding. Against that, the business is spending cash quickly: operating losses plus capital spending totaled about $316 million in 2023, $451 million in 2024, $512 million in 2025, and ran at an annualized pace of about $750 million in the first half of 2026 -- spending has grown every year, not slowed, driven by hiring, stock-based compensation, and construction of the Georgia factory. At that pace, the current cash pile funds only about two years before more capital is needed, consistent with how Archer has funded itself so far: repeated stock issuances, including a large investment from Stellantis. We valued the shares as what is left of that cash after funding the company's ongoing losses, since no product revenue can yet be credited: In the bear case, spending keeps running at its current pace with no near-term let-up (nothing in the filings shows spending has ever decelerated), cash runs low within about two years, and the next capital raise happens from a position of weakness, diluting today's shareholders heavily. On that path, existing shares are worth around $0.40. In the base case, spending moderates somewhat as the Georgia factory's heaviest construction spending (financed through a loan that converts from interest-only to amortizing in late 2026) tapers off over the next few years, stretching the runway and preserving more of today's cash value -- but we have kept this cautious, because a large part of the recent spending increase is stock-based compensation tied to headcount, which has no obvious reason to fall just because the factory is finished. On this path, we estimate the shares are worth around $1.00. In the bull case, the company manages its spending more tightly than its recent history shows and construction costs roll off as expected, stretching the current cash cushion furthest -- but even here we assign no value to future air-taxi or defense revenue, because none of it is contracted yet. On this path, we estimate the shares are worth around $1.70. Given how much of this outcome depends on a single, binary event -- successful FAA certification, which the company has not yet reached even as it enters the final testing phase -- and on the risk that the next capital raise happens on unfavorable terms, the margin-of-safety price is set at a large discount to our already-cautious base case, around $0.45 per share. What would change our view: a signed, unconditional order (rather than the current conditional purchase agreement) from a launch customer, a completed FAA type certificate, or clear evidence that spending has actually turned down rather than continuing to climb.